Wednesday, September 20, 2006

In Last but Looking Forward

The Seattle Mariners have, like they have each of the last five seasons since winning 116 games in 2001, missed the playoffs. In '02 and '03, they were in the hunt for a playoff berth, winning 93 games each season. The following two seasons were a mess. 99 losses in '04 and 93 losses in '05. The Mariners are currently standing at 72-79. An improvement over the last two seasons, and looking towards the future. The future could be very bright for the Mariners, and they know it; they have been stockpiling young talent over the last few years, and have one of the best under-25 talent pools in the League.

If you are going to talk about the future of the Mariners, the conversation begins with Felix Hernandez. "King Felix" has had his ups and downs, but he is only 20, throws in the high 90s, and has a disgusting curve when it's on. He is arguably the best pitching prospect in all of baseball... and he's been in the big leagues for two seasons now. The rest of the starting rotation wont even warrant my writing, except that Gil Meche would be a decent #4 starter but some team will stupidly pay him too much this offseason for the Mariners to match.

The bullpen seems very strong. JJ Putz has emerged as one of the top young closers in the game. Raphael Soriano is amazing in a setup role. George Sherrill, who is lights out vs. left handed bats, and Jake Woods can be the other two top arms in the pen.

The middle infield seems set for years to come, with Yuniesky Betancourt and Jose Lopez emerging as a great double play tandem for the Mariners. Lopez made the All-Star team, and Betancourt has hit near .300 ball with a ton of doubles this year. But what he is known for is his exceptional glove. They say he could be the best defensive shortstop since Ozzie Smith. I've seen him play... the prediction isn't that crazy.

Ichiro is going to keep doing what he's doing... hitting for a high average, scoring runs, playing stellar defense. But the Mariners need to move him to center field permanently next season (he is playing there now) to make room for Chris Snelling. Snelling has been a top prospect in the Mariners farm system for years, and has already made a few big league stints with the M's. He also has a serious case of the injury bug. But if he can stay healthy for the full season next year, he could very well hit .300 with 20-25 home runs. And he plays plus defense in right and holds nothing back. Think Trot Nixon.

At catcher is Kenji Johjima, who at 28 is old for a rookie. He has shown the ability to swing the bat for average and power, but the jury is still out on his throwing arm behind the plate, and his signal calling. He still may be the best offensive catcher the Mariners have ever had, and that's saying something for a rookie.

Then you've got the two biggest free agent signings in Mariner history, Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson, who will be entering their third season with Seattle. Beltre has shown improvement over his horrendous 2005 campaign, and Sexson has done what he's being paid to do... .258 with 29 HR and 98 RBI for the team that scored the second fewest runs in the majors. And don't forget Raul Ibanez, who has been the most consistent Mariner over the last few seasons. He really should be moved to full-time DH, but he can play in left.

Basically, that sums up 8/9 of the 2007 Mariners lineup, with an open spot in left or at DH for the Mariners to go shopping. Jeremy Reed, who missed this season due to injury and is an outfielder, hasn't shown that he can be an every day starter offensively for a team that is in serious need of power. Adam Jones, the 21 year old phenom center fielder, isn't ready for the majors yet. And Ben Broussard, who could play DH, can't hit lefties and doesn't hit righties well enough to warrant a starting spot. So this offseason, the Mariners should look to sign a LF or DH not named Carlos Lee. Other than that, the lineup is set. The bullpen is set. The Mariners need to focus on getting some legit starting pitching. With available free agents taken into consideration, I think the 2007 Seattle Mariners could push for the AL West crown if they looked something like this:

Batting order:
1) Ichiro CF (L)
2) Snelling LF (L)
3) Beltre 3B (R)
4) Raul Ibanez DH (L)
5) Richie Sexson 1B (R)
6) Kenji Johjima C (R)
7) Pedro Feliz LF (R)
8) Jose Lopez 2B (R)
9) Yuniesky Betancourt SS (R)

Pitching Rotation:
1) Felix Hernandez (R)
2) Jason Schmidt (R)
3) Daisuke Matsuzka (R)
4) Jarrod Washburn (L)
5) Cha Seung Baek (R)

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